Over time, competition between traditional and new entrants to th

Over time, competition between traditional and new entrants to the fisheries, along with institutional weakness have become major causes of conflict. The application of PISCES (used for information gathering under FishCom) identified several types of conflict

in the study sites which are outlined briefly below: Conflicts of this BAY 80-6946 in vitro type relate to who determines the access, rights or entitlements of fishers to fish in a disputed area. Access issues are the root cause of this type of conflict. One such conflict was reported by fishers from Natmura village near the River Naf of Teknaf Upazilla who reported that they had been forced to stop fishing in parts of the river surrounding a neighboring village after fishers there began to enforce a longstanding claim that the area ‘belonged’ to their village. The dispute occurred due to the assertion of pseudo-property rights based on residency and ancestral occupation, over an area of water which was formally designated as

open access. This type of conflict may also occur due to rivalry over access to fishing grounds between small-scale traditional fishers and powerful local individuals, a situation found to be common in all the study sites. As a result of these dynamics, operators of fixed gear such as estuarine set bag nets (ESBN) and marine set bag nets (MSBN) reported having to move from locations where they had fished for generations to less productive areas after locally powerful individuals took control over the fishing grounds by use of verbal threats or, frequently, EX 527 price physical violence, and sometimes allowed them to fish only after receiving monetary payment, which is totally illegal. Conflict over access rights also occurs when the fishers of bordering nations (Myanmar and India) enter Bangladesh’s territorial waters or vice-versa, and become involved in conflict with local fishers. This type of transboundary conflict comes to the fore when the border security force of the neighboring nation seizes boats and nets and arrests fishers, claiming that they entered territorial

waters illegally. These incidents are made more frequent because of unresolved issues of boundary demarcation at sea. Fishers face substantial losses when they are arrested. One fisher interviewed in Teknaf upazilla was caught by Fenbendazole the Myanmar border security force with other fellow fishers in 2003 and reported that they were sent to jail after being arrested and faced severe torture while in custody. Bangladesh has brought the issue of sea boundary demarcation with India and Myanmar to the UN Arbitration Tribunal. The International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea offered a verdict on this longstanding dispute over the maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal between Bangladesh and Myanmar in 2012 (The Daily Star, 2012). Arbitration with India is expected to be settled in 2014.

The results from this study demonstrated that clinical factors pr

The results from this study demonstrated that clinical factors present the greatest risk for acquiring HCABSIs. For example, the receipt of blood products increases the risk of acquiring HCABSIs by approximately 18 times. These results were consistent with the findings from other studies [38] and [39]. Moreover, the current study showed that the risk of acquiring

infections was 4 times greater in the patients who Enzalutamide nmr undergo invasive procedures than those who do not. These results were supported by other studies [14] and [40]. These findings were expected because these invasive procedures crossed the body’s barriers and resulted in infection. Approximately one-third of infected patients in this study selleckchem were patients with renal failure, which increased the risk for HCABSIs by 3 times. Similar

findings have been reported in various studies [41] and [42]. Renal failure increases the risk of HCABSIs because of hemodialysis and related treatments [43] and because of the direct negative impact of renal failure on immunity [44]. Similar to the results found by Al-Rawajfah and colleagues [12], this study demonstrated that advanced age is not one of the primary risk factors for HCABSIs. This finding supports the notation that HCABSIs are more related to clinical (modifiable) risk factors, which emphasizes the role of infection control measures and compliance to minimize the risk of infection. The major limitations of

this study are the use of a single (although large) hospital in Jordan. This hospital represents one health care sector in Jordan. Many hospitals in Jordan, particularly in the governmental hospitals, do not keep electronic records for their patients. Therefore, the inclusion of hospitals without electronic patient records would be challenging, particularly when using the retrospective design. Nonetheless, the data from this study provide an initial status report on a significant problem that is shared by both developed and developing nations. Because we failed to match 36.8% of the cases and aminophylline controls based on the same admission unit, referral bias can be considered to be one limitation of this study. Referral bias occurs when the study admission rates differ [45]. Dawson and Trapp [45] suggested including controls from a wide variety of disease categories to overcome this limitation. Therefore, future research should include cases and controls from different hospitals as well as controlling for the admission unit. Another limitation of our study was the missing variables. We were unable to examine many risk factors that are known to affect HCABSIs. For example, illness severity, malnutrition, trauma, infection control practices, and unit staffing are examples of variables that were not examined by this study. Developing a multicenter study, including hospitals from different health care sectors in Jordan, is highly desirable.

, 2006): equation(7) t=1λlnI0Im, where t – age [year], I0 – total

, 2006): equation(7) t=1λlnI0Im, where t – age [year], I0 – total inventory of excess 210Pb [Bq cm− 2] and Im – inventory of excess 210Pb below the cumulative mass depth m [Bq cm− 2]. The MAR can be calculated for each depth interval with the equation of Boer et al. (2006): equation(8) ω=λImAm, where Am – excess 210Pb activity at depth interval m [Bq kg− 1 d.m.]. The method of sediment

dating based on the vertical distribution of the 210Pb concentration was validated by measurements of the activity change of the 137Cs isotope along the vertical profiles of seabed sediments. 137Cs is entirely anthropogenic. The presence of 137Cs in seabed sediments is due principally to the nuclear tests performed since 1945; maximum deposition was recorded in 1963 and after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. Following the rationale of the sediment dating procedure validation using 137Cs, it is assumed selleck screening library that these historical events should be imprinted in the activity curves of that isotope along the vertical DZNeP ic50 sediment profiles. Dried and homogenised sediment samples were placed in counting boxes of appropriate geometry. Activity concentrations of 210Pb and 137Cs isotopes together

with 214Bi were measured by the gamma spectrometry method using an HPGe detector with a relative efficiency of 40% and a resolution of 1.8 keV for peak of 1332 keV of 60Co. The detector was coupled to an 8192-channel digital spectrum analyser and GENIE 2000 software. In September 2008 the concentration of SPM near the measurement station MH1, before the deployment of sediment traps, was 28.0 g m− 3. The measurements of SPM concentrations Methamphetamine after the exposure times of all the sediment traps had ended, demonstrated that the concentration varied seasonally (Table 1). The SPM concentration varied between 2.0

and 17.2 g m− 3. The largest concentrations were recorded in autumn–winter and in summer. This was probably due to the intensity of autumn–winter storm surges and the associated increased SPM supply to Puck Bay and to the increase in biological production in summer. The lowest concentration was recorded in April. This figure is encumbered by nontrivial measurement errors resulting from poor weather conditions (a wind speed of about 10 m s− 1, a very rough water surface). Those conditions hampered the manoeuvring of the research vessel, making it extremely difficult to obtain water samples from below the surface. During the in situ investigations the traps captured from 20 to ca 44 grams of sediment (Table 2). The average monthly deposition was roughly 5.10 g between September 2008 and January 2009, 4.30 g from January to April 2009, and 3.23 g from April to August 2009. These results confirm the seasonal nature of sediment deposition in Puck Bay. The sediment supply is greater in autumn–winter, whereas inputs are lower in summer.

, 2011 and references therein)

Regulation of gene expres

, 2011 and references therein).

Regulation of gene expression by chromatin is in part regulated by a class of enzymes which methylate or demethylate histone proteins. The first lysine specific histone demethylase discovered is LSD1. This enzyme a member of the monoamine oxygenase family (EC: and catalyzes the demethylation of mono- and di-methylated lysine through reduction of FAD. The reaction proceeds through the formation of a positively charged imine intermediate which degrades to produce formaldehyde and the amine. In this process FAD is reduced Selleck PD0325901 to FADH2 which is subsequently reoxidized by molecular oxygen with the production of hydrogen peroxide. Therefore a number of enzymatic products are available and assays have been developed using LC/MS to detect peptide product (Metzger et al., 2010) and coupled enzymatic reactions have been used to detect either hydrogen peroxide or formaldehyde (Forneris et al., 2005). High-throughput mass spectrometry methods, such as the RapidFire mass spectrometry system

from Biotrove (Hutchinson et al., 2012) can enable HTS on libraries as large as ~200 K in size (Ozbal et al., 2004 and Roddy Belinostat mw et al., 2007). A TR-FRET assay operating in a signal decrease mode, using an antibody that recognizes H3K4me1 but not the unmethylated product, has been recently described (Yu et al., 2012). Additionally, an AlphaScreen-based assay has also been developed using an antibody

to an H3K4me1 peptide (Gauthier et al., 2012). A sensitive assay using TR-FRET-based detection of an unmethylated histone-3 peptide by a fluorescent europium-chelate labeled monoclonal antibody which binds specifically to the H3K4me0 site has been used in HTS (Wang et al., 2011). As the antibody in this assay recognizes the unmethylated product, an increase in signal upon LSD1 inhibition is obtained which is more desirable than a signal decrease mode where compounds which interfere with the signal would Wilson disease protein be detected. Generic assays for HMTs have also been developed. Some HMTs that catalyze the transfer of a methyl group to either lysine or arginine require the co-factor adenosyl-l-methionine (SAM). A generic assay for this class methyl transferases has been described (Ibanez et al., 2012). In this assay biotinylated peptides are methylated with a [3H-Me]-SAM cofactor and streptavidin-coated SPA beads are used for detection. When histone H3 is employed as a common substrate, this SPA format provides a generic read-out for HMTs.

Mit Konzentrationen von 13-15 ppm während der Schwangerschaft war

Mit Konzentrationen von 13-15 ppm während der Schwangerschaft waren niedrigere Scores verbunden. Auf den Färöern ist Walfleisch die Hauptquelle für MeHg, womit gleichzeitig polychlorierte Biphenyle aufgenommen werden. Es wurden Proben von Nabelschnurblut und mütterlichem Haar gesammelt, und die Kinder wurden während des ersten Lebensjahrs und im Alter von sieben Jahren

untersucht. Bei den 7-jährigen Kindern wurde eine umfassende neurologische und neuropsychologische Testbatterie durchgeführt. Auf den Seychellen wurden während der Schwangerschaft mütterliche Haarproben gesammelt und mit den Ergebnissen verschiedener neurologischer Tests, dem IQ und Entwicklungsmeilensteinen der Kinder im Alter von bis zu 9 Jahren learn more in Beziehung gesetzt. Dabei wurden keine ausreichenden Belege für eine Beeinträchtigung der kindlichen Entwicklung durch eine pränatale Exposition gegenüber MeHg aus Seefisch gefunden. Eine ausführliche Diskussion der Auswirkungen einer MeHg-Exposition durch den Verzehr von Fisch sprengt den Rahmen dieser Arbeit, und der Leser sei auf den Übersichtsartikel zu diesen Studien von Clarkson und Magos

[2] verwiesen. Bei sämtlichen Einschränkungen GSK126 des Verzehrs von Fisch sollten auch die günstigen Auswirkungen bedacht werden, die Fisch auf die menschliche Gesundheit hat, insbesondere auf das sich entwickelnde Gehirn. Daniels et al. [86] untersuchten mehr als 7000 Kinder und zeigten, dass der Verzehr von Fisch durch Mütter und Kleinkinder zu einem höheren Entwicklungs-Score bei den Kindern führte. Ein vom Harvard Center for Risk Assessment organisiertes Molecular motor Gremium bewertete das mit MeHg in Fisch verbundene Risiko und kam zu dem Schluss, dass die Aufsichtsbehörden die Auswirkungen einer Regulierung des

Fischkonsums von schwangeren Frauen und der Bevölkerung allgemein sorgfältig prüfen sollten, da ein geringerer Verzehr von Fisch insgesamt einen negativen Effekt auf die öffentliche Gesundheit haben könnte [87], [88] and [89]. Es sollte beachtet werden, dass einige in Fisch vorhandene Nährstoffe, wie z. B. Selen und Omega-3-Fettsäuren, die Entwicklung des Gehirns fördern, andere dagegen die toxischen Effekte von MeHg reduzieren können [44] and [90]. Zum Thema GSH-Mangel gibt es einen bemerkenswerten Bericht über einen Patienten mit einem angeborenen Defekt bei der GSH-Synthese. Der Patient war seit dem Kindesalter geistig behindert und zeigte Anzeichen und Symptome ähnlich denen, die bei den Patienten mit der Minamata-Krankheit beobachtet wurden [91]. Bei dem Patienten wurden eine generalisierte GSH-Defizienz und eine 5-Oxoprolinurie diagnostiziert, und er war mit Bikarbonat zur Kontrolle seiner metabolischen Azidose behandelt worden.

In comparison, the abundance of MSCs in “yellow” fatty marrow asp

In comparison, the abundance of MSCs in “yellow” fatty marrow aspirates observed in our study appears to be relatively minor (only a 2–5 fold higher than in classical “red” marrow aspirates). Given the unique Cabozantinib price function of adipocytes in the marrow [45], [46] and [47] and the different metabolic functions of fat in different depot sites [47], our data indicate that the MSC pool size in “fatty tissues” is

clearly site-specific. Variations in MSC function have been documented for different types of bone: orofacial, axial and appendicular [48] and different depots of fat: arm, flank, thigh and abdomen [49]. The heterogeneity of MSCs resident within seemingly the same type of tissues but located in different anatomical areas may be explained by varying local demands for tissue turnover and mechanical loads [48]. Additionally, the MSC topography in diverse human tissues has been described as primarily perivascular [50] and [51] PI3K inhibitor and it is possible that the lower MSC frequency in fatty marrow as opposed to subcutaneous fat may be also related to blood vessel density as suggested previously for human synovium [52] and equine adipose tissue [53]. The fact that LBFBM-derived cultured MSCs were able to effectively differentiate towards

osteoblasts and chondrocytes in vitro provided strong evidence that minimally expanded LBFBM-derived MSCs can be used as cell therapy for fracture non-unions. Furthermore, high numbers of CD45−/lowCD271+ cells present in LBFBM samples (up to 67,000, median 43,620 in 10 ml) suggested that their direct injection, in a one-stage procedure, may be possible without prior cell-culture. One previous study has showed that a dose of 50,000 uncultured MSCs from ~ 300 ml of ICBMA was efficacious following injection into non-union fracture sites [10]. A lower volume of LBFBM would therefore be sufficient

to obtain a similar number of MSCs. Uncultured MSCs could be effectively concentrated using magnetic beads against the CD271 molecule, Histamine H2 receptor based on our findings showing that the proportions of CD45−/low CD271+ cells closely reflected that of CFU-Fs [28]. The findings from this study also offer an additional cellular mechanism to explain the efficient bone healing process following LB fracture. They show, for the first time, that the marrow contents of long bones contain large numbers of functionally-competent local MSCs. Given a novel concept of local MSC recruitment to fracture sites [54] and [55] and our findings showing large numbers of MSCs in LBFBM in humans, our data point towards a potentially major contribution of locally-recruited LBFBM MSCs to healing of long bone fractures. Systemic MSC circulation in healthy humans and in response to injury remains poorly understood [56], [57], [58], [59] and [60], and in this respect our findings showing no circulating MSCs in patients with fracture non-union (despite high MSC numbers in ICBM and LBFBM) are noteworthy.

Czas przeżycia jest dłuższy niż w DBP i wynosi średnio 5 lat [19,

Czas przeżycia jest dłuższy niż w DBP i wynosi średnio 5 lat [19, 20]. Szczególne miejsce w tej grupie zajmuje defekt białka

dwufunkcyjnego (D-bifunctional protein deficiency, DBP), druga po X-ALD co do częstości występowania choroba peroksysomalna. Pierwszy pacjent został zdiagnozowany przez Suzuki w 1997 r. Wyróżniamy trzy typy choroby: typ I – deficyt hydratazy i dehydrogenazy spowodowany brakiem białka DBP, typ II- izolowany deficyt hydratazy, typ III – izolowany deficyt dehydrogenazy. Obraz kliniczny przypomina zespoły z PBD. Wszyscy pacjenci wykazują wiotkości w okresie noworodkowym, napady drgawek już w 1 mies. życia. Około 70% z nich ma dysmorfię przypominającą ZS, u 15% pacjentów obserwowano drgawki w okresie niemowlęcym, prawie żaden nie osiągnął zauważalnego Androgen Receptor Antagonist clinical trial stopnia rozwoju psychomotorycznego. Wykazano, że stopień ciężkości choroby koreluje z aktywnością resztkową enzymu. Średnia długość przeżycia koreluje z typem choroby i wynosi odpowiednio dla t. I – 6,9 m,

II – 10,7 m i III – 17,6 m, chociaż zdarzają się pojedyncze przeżycia >5 lat 21., 22., 23. and 24.. Jest to choroba występująca niezwykle rzadko. Charakteryzuje się obniżeniem napięcia mięśniowego, drżeniami, zaburzeniami przewodnictwa nerwowego. Obserwowano również hipergonadotroficzny hipogonadyzm [25]. Po raz pierwszy deficyt racemazy opisano w 2000 r., do tej pory zdiagnozowano niewielu pacjentów. Obecnie wydaje się, że może być on prezentowany przez dwa bardzo różne fenotypy; (1) wczesno objawowe uszkodzenie wątroby, które może prowadzić do wczesnej śmierci, ale też w niektórych przypadkach objawy IWR-1 in vitro mogą być przemijające, (2) dominująca późno objawowa neuropatia czuciowa. Opisywano również pacjenta z barwnikowym zwyrodnieniem siatkówki, przypominającym chorobę Refsuma,

u którego również obserwowano padaczkę, migrenę i stany depresyjne 26., 27. and 28.. Choroba ujawnia się w późnym dzieciństwie pogorszeniem nocnego widzenia, postępującym zwyrodnieniem barwnikowym siatkówki i utratą powonienia. Adenosine triphosphate Mogą wystąpić neuropatia, głuchota, ataksja, a nawet zaburzenia psychiczne. Obecnie uważa się, że rybia łuska, wcześniej postrzegana jako objaw patognomoniczny w chorobie Refsuma, występuje jedynie u około 25% chorych. Hiperoksaluria I (PH1) jest klinicznie bardzo różnorodna, zarówno, co do czasu wystąpienia objawów, jak i dynamiki postępu choroby. Większość pacjentów pierwsze objawy wykazuje poniżej 55 roku życia. Niekiedy jednak może się ona ujawnić dopiero w szóstej dekadzie życia. Najcięższa noworodkowa PH1 charakteryzuje się postępującą oksalozą (odkładanie się szczawianów wapnia w tkankach), poważnym uszkodzeniem nerek i wczesnym zgonem. Pierwszego pacjenta opisano w 1992 r. Chondrodystrofię rizomeliczną typu II charakteryzuje dysmorfia twarzowo-czaszkowa, głęboka hipotonia, zaćma, karłowatość, skrócenie ramion.

Greatest decreases were observed in cells exposed to, EHC-93tot,

Greatest decreases were observed in cells exposed to, EHC-93tot, EHC-93insol, SRM-1648, copper II oxide and SiO2, ( Fig. 5D, Table 3). TiO2 exposure did not alter nitrite levels. As indicated earlier for particle-only exposures, respiratory burst in PMA-, Zymosan-, or LPS/IFN-γ-stimulated macrophages was also adjusted for viability at 2 h post-exposure to account for overt cytotoxicity.

There was an overall strong correlation between the potencies (βi-v2) of the tested particles for inhibition of the respiratory burst induced by the three stimulants (βiPMA-v2 learn more vs. βiZymosan-v2, r = 0.61, p = 0.036; βiZymosan-v2 vs. βiLPS/IFN-v2, r = 0.64, p = 0.027; βiPMA-v2 vs. βiLPS/IFN-v2, r = 0.95, p < 0.001, Pearson correlation). Three clusters www.selleckchem.com/products/MK-2206.html of materials were deduced from the degree of inhibition of the stimulant-induced respiratory burst: high potency (SRM-1649 and iron III oxide), intermediate potency (EHC-93tot, EHC-93insol, SRM-1648, VERP, copper II oxide, and iron II/III oxide), and low potency (EHC-93sol, TiO2, SiO2,

nickel II oxide) ( Fig. 6A). Best subsets regression applied to all variables tested (βv2 and βi-v2 for PMA, Zymosan and LPS/IFN-γ) indicated that cell viability after 2 h exposure to particles (XTT reduction, βv2) was the only strong predictor of viability after 24 h (βv24, R2 = 0.87, p < 0.001, Variance Inflation Factor = 1.0). The extent of inhibitory effects of the particles on stimulant-induced respiratory burst after 2 h incubation with particles (consensus βi-v2) also correlated with cytotoxicity measured after 24 h (βv24), but with some nuances, as described below ( Fig. 6B). The consensus potency was derived as mean potency of inhibition OSBPL9 of respiratory burst for a given particle, across treatments of cells with PMA, Zymosan and LPS/IFN-γ. While SiO2 was highly cytotoxic (βv24 = −0.287) and inhibited the respiratory burst in response to Zymosan (βi-v2 = −0.110), SiO2 nevertheless increased the respiratory burst response to PMA and LPS/IFN-γ

(βi-v2 = 0.115). Copper II oxide (βv24 = −0.844, βi-v2 = −0.220) and nickel II oxide (βv24 = −0.289, βi-v2 = −0.079) were highly cytotoxic and inhibitory on respiratory burst. In contrast, VERP particles were moderately inhibitory on respiratory burst but without apparent cytotoxicity ( Fig. 6B). Overall, viability at 24 h (βv24) for SiO2, Cu II oxide, Ni II oxide, Fe III oxide, Fe II/III oxide, and TiO2 correlated with the occupational exposure limits ( Fig. 6C). The urban particles EHC-93 (Ottawa), SRM-1648 (St-Louis) and SRM-1649 (Washington) directly activated the release of reactive oxygen species by macrophages. It is well established that urban particles induce respiratory burst in phagocytic cells (Beck-Speier et al., 2005).

) based on an improved modeling approach and revised harmonized e

) based on an improved modeling approach and revised harmonized eutrophication status targets resulting in a renewed commitment of HELCOM Contracting Parties at the HELCOM Ministerial Meeting in October 2013. Starting point check details of this study was an evaluation of the existing reference and target concentrations for nutrients and chlorophyll for German rivers, coastal waters and the Baltic Sea, according to WFD and BSAP. It turned out that the scientific

basis for deriving reference concentrations for nutrients in coastal waters needs a revision, in particular the associated target thresholds were far too ambitious to be reached even with an optimal river basin management [45] and [34]. Existing water quality targets for the Szczecin lagoon, for example are 0.016 mg/l total phosphorus (TP) and 0.11 mg/l total nitrogen (TN) [10]. Schernewski et al. [46] in comparison suggest re-calculated, model-based thresholds of 0.1 mg/l TP

and 0.7 mg/l TN. The existing target (threshold) concentrations for nutrients did not match the target for chlorophyll a although these two water quality Selumetinib molecular weight objectives correlate. Further, target concentrations in rivers need to be developed for the German Baltic Sea catchment. Problems and inconsistencies largely resulted from the fact that several consultants and researchers worked independently on certain WFD biological elements and hydro-chemical parameters using different methodologies. Furthermore, target values were derived largely independently for the open sea, coastal waters, rivers and lakes without considering interconnections of these surfaces waters and recognizing marine waters as the ultimate sink of nutrients (Fig. 1). Without reliable target for water quality neither the WFD nor the MSFD or the BSAP can be successfully implemented since management

objectives guiding measures cannot be derived. In recognition of this challenge, a full re-calculation of all reference and target concentrations was carried out, using a spatially coupled, Interleukin-2 receptor large scale and integrative modeling approach. For this purpose, the river basin flux model MONERIS was linked to ERGOM-MOM, a three-dimensional ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. This process was carried out by permanent involvement of a stakeholder group consisting of national and federal state authorities as well as scientists. The time period around 1880 was selected as a historical reference because it represents a period before industrialization and agricultural intensification. Little influence of anthropogenic activities can be assumed because strong evidence exists that water transparency and macrophyte coverage even in inner coastal waters were still high (e.g. [1], [26] and [49]. Reconstructed historical loads were then used as a basis to simulate the resulting nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations in Baltic coastal and open waters.

The worst-case scenarios and petroleum composites are estimated i

The worst-case scenarios and petroleum composites are estimated in a similar way and from the same database. Flow rates are determined from documented blowout flow rates, where physical and geological conditions are comparable. For example, reservoir pressure is a Mdm2 inhibitor key factor [28]. The

drift of an oil slick is estimated using a simulation model taking into account the blowout site, oceanographic features and oil properties [28]. As stated in the Management plan, historical data are representative for the future only to a limited degree [30]. There are several factors that contribute to uncertainty in assessing the probability of a blowout: (i) representativeness of empirical data – workplace conditions, political, geological and environmental conditions will never be identical to any other situation, (ii) effects of innovations – the selleck products technical developments and improvements of routines are challenging to account for. Not all are considered sufficiently determined to be included in the calculations [33] and [34], (iii) surprises – whether future developments will introduce new and unexpected events

are not possible to know, and (iv) data scarcity – one blowout limits the confidence in the probability estimates. The above uncertainties are also relevant in determining an appropriate size of a worst-case scenario oil spill, which again influences its dispersion. The sites, ocean currents and weather conditions determine the dispersal of oil slicks, as for example how much of an oil slick will hit the coastline and whether it will be dispersed or biodegradated. Production sites at the continental slope are associated with higher probabilities of a blowout due to higher pressures, but the resulting oil slick will probably be transported farther away from the coastline and the critical distribution areas of fish. Sources of uncertainties include (i) the sites – the Lofoten area is not sufficiently explored for locating optimal production oxyclozanide sites, (ii) ocean currents – the grid resolution of the ocean models providing ocean currents and hydrography is

coarse [27], (iii) weather conditions are complex and indeterminate and (iv) the partly unknown petroleum composite, which influences an oil slick’s fate in the ocean. All these factors contribute to uncertainty in simulated oil slick dispersal, which again are used to assess impacts of a worst-case scenario. As mentioned above, the Forum on Environmental Risk Management was requested to evaluate whether the current worst-case scenario needed to be revised [28]. This generated discussions across sectors on what constitutes comparable conditions, and on the effect of necessary expert judgments (due to uncertainties listed in the above subsection). The principal conclusion in the report states that the conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are not representative for the Lofoten case, and therefore, the size of the worst-case oil spill should remain the same.